TimothĂ©e Chalamet is not going to win the Oscar for Actor in a Leading Role. That’s a prediction for who will not win, but predicting the winner this year feels like a guessing game in a way it hasn’t for years. I used to post Oscar predictions on an old blog. I was just looking at them here. Previous posts about them come across as cringy, funny, and incorrect. No one was asking for the predictions at the time and no one is now, but I am going to do it anyway. If you want to hear what the pros predict, please, please give The Big Picture a listen.

Shall I continue?
Actor in a Leading Role. Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle after Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Winner: Michael B. Jordan. Going with the slight underdog here. Earlier in the race, DiCaprio seemed like a lock and even earlier Chalamet was the favorite, but MBJ has a full head of steam here, fresh off a SAG win. What he does in Sinners, playing twins with noticeably different mannerisms and affectations, is terribly impressive. Personally, I think DiCaprio’s performance is the more impressive one, but MBJ has the momentum and buzz right now.
Actor in a Supporting Role. Nominees: Benicio Del Toro (One Battle after Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle after Another), Stellan SkarsgĂĄrd (Sentimental Value)
Winner: Sean Penn. I feel like Skarsgard and Lindo have good chances too, but I’m sticking with Penn’s performance. He plays one sick dude in this movie.
Actress in a Leading Role. Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Winner: Jessie Buckley by a mile. Rose Byrne gets the silver. If anyone else wins, they got it wrong.
Actress in a Supporting Role. Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle after Another)
Winner: Teyana Taylor. Much harder to predict than the leading role winner, but I think she edges out Madigan, although it would be so cool if Madigan won.
Animated Feature Film. Nominees: Arco (Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman), Elio (Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm), KPop Demon Hunters (Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong), Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon), Zootopia 2 (Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino)
Winner: KPop Demon Hunters. Since becoming a dad, I have seen every animated feature film nominated for an Oscar many times over. This year is an anomaly. I have only seen three of these movies so this is not a terribly-educated guess.
Casting (a brand new Oscar category this year). Nominees: Hamnet (Nina Gold), Marty Supreme (Jennifer Venditti), One Battle after Another (Cassandra Kulukundis), The Secret Agent (Gabriel Domingues), Sinners (Francine Maisler)
Winner: Sinners.
Cinematography. Nominees: Frankenstein (Dan Laustsen), Marty Supreme (Darius Khondji), One Battle after Another (Michael Bauman), Sinners (Autumn Durald Arkapaw), Train Dreams (Adolpho Veloso)
Winner: One Battle after Another (Michael Bauman).
Costume Design. Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash (Deborah L. Scott), Frankenstein (Kate Hawley), Hamnet (Malgosia Turzanska), Marty Supreme (Miyako Bellizzi), Sinners (Ruth E. Carter)
Winner: With my exceptionally deep knowledge of the subject, I am going to go with Sinners.
Directing. Nominees: Hamnet (Chloé Zhao), Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie), One Battle after Another (Paul Thomas Anderson), Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier), Sinners (Ryan Coogler)
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle after Another. Ryan Coogler has the best shot at bumping PTA from the top spot, but I don’t think the Sinners momentum is enough to make the knockout punch.
Documentary Feature Film. Nominees: The Alabama Solution (Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman), Come See Me in the Good Light (Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen), Cutting through Rocks (Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni), Mr. Nobody against Putin (David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková), The Perfect Neighbor (Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee)
Winner: Mr. Nobody against Putin. I have a 20% chance at being right. I have seen all of these films except Cutting through Rocks, which has not been available to stream or rent yet. I have written about Mr. Nobody against Putin. What I didn’t write about at the time were the repercussions of making a movie like this. The filmmaker, Pavel Talankin, fled Russia, but everyone else is stuck there even if they expressed pro-democracy views or expressed concern about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So, I worry for those people, but I think this is the movie that the Academy will award at this time though it is not the most widely seen.
Documentary Short Film. Nominees: All the Empty Rooms (Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones), Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo), Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins), The Devil Is Busy (Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir), Perfectly a Strangeness (Alison McAlpine)
Winner: All the Empty Rooms. I have not seen this, nor have I seen Children No More or Perfectly a Strangeness, but the description of All the Empty Rooms is this: Follows correspondent Steve Hartman and photographer Lou Bopp as they embark on a seven-year-long project to document the empty bedrooms of children killed in school shootings. I have yet to click play on this one even though it’s on Netflix. I don’t think anyone wants to watch this, but it should be required viewing for Republicans. Armed Only with a Camera and The Devil is Busy are both available on HBO MAX and are both quite good.
For the rest of the categories I am simply guessing the winner, not listing nominees, and not elaborating on the guess. Furthermore, I am skipping some categories that I have no interest in or any real knowledge of.
BEST PICTURE: One Battle after Another. Again, Sinners has the momentum here, but going with the traditional Academy winner here.
Film Editing: One Battle after Another.
International Feature Film: The Secret Agent (available on Hulu)
Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein.
Music Original Score: Sinners, Ludwig Goransson.
Music Original Song: GOLDEN, can it be anything else? Although I believe Train Dreams is magnificent.
Sound: F1.
Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash.
Writing Adapted Screenplay: One Battle after Another, Paul Thomas Anderson.
Writing Original Screenplay: Sinners, Ryan Coogler.
Okay. Maybe I’ll be back to see just how bad I did on the categories I bothered predicting. As for the Oscars broadcast itself, I am pleased that Conan O’Brien is hosting again. He knocked it out of the park last year. You can watch them on ABC if you have cable or a terrifically positioned TV and antenna, which I do not. Luckily, you can stream them live on Hulu with a subscription and replay starting the next day.
If you haven’t figured it out by now, I love movies.


















